The Weekend Update for Sept 12, 2025
Jobs Reality Check Finally Arrives: Mortgage Rates Hit 2025 Lows
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Friday's August employment report delivered the reality check the bond market had been waiting for. With just 22,000 jobs added versus 75,000 expected, and June's numbers revised from +147,000 to -13,000 (breaking a 54-month growth streak), the underlying labor market weakness we've been tracking finally showed up in the headline data.
The bond market responded decisively, driving 30-year mortgage rates down to 6.29% - another 2025 low. The technical structure of the MBS market accelerated this move as investor demand shifted between coupon buckets, creating the "slippery slide" effect we see when rates approach key thresholds.
Key takeaways from this week:
- Unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% with concerning underlying metrics
- Job openings to unemployed ratio fell below 1.0 for first time since 2021
- Fed rate cut now priced at 100% probability for September 17th meeting
- Critical inflation data due next week (PPI Wednesday, CPI Thursday)
For real estate professionals and financial advisors, this environment creates both opportunity and urgency. Strategy beats rate always, but right now we're getting both better strategic opportunities and improving rates.
Join Us at The Career Compass Education & Continuing Education Event
September 10-11, 2025
We'll be presenting at The Career Compass continuing education event, covering the latest strategies for helping clients navigate today's changing interest rate environment. Don't miss our session on Strategic Debt Management and how to position your clients for success.
Special Event Raffle: Win a 65" Television!
All attendees will be eligible for our special raffle featuring a brand new 65" television. Make sure to stop by our booth to enter and learn about our latest tools and programs.